New 'safe drinking limits' are bad science

The new “safe limits” on drinking, announced earlier this year by Chief Medical Officer Professor Dame Sally Davies, have been castigated as not only poor science but lacking any scientific credibility at all by Paul Chase, a director of CPL Training.

As well as specialising in training for licensees, Chase has made a long and detailed study of drinking and health policy and how guidelines have changed over the years.

He told a seminar organised by the British Guild of Beer Writers that the previous “safe units” of 24 a week for men and 14 for women were introduced in 1987 by civil servants, not scientists. The new recommended units announced by Professor Davies are 14 units a week for both men and women, with the rider that there is no safe level of consumption.

Paul Chase said the Chief Medical Officer [CMO] was supported by activists and academics with a long track record of attacking the alcohol industry. Evidence came from the Institute for Alcohol Studies that says it has no views on whether or not people should drink. But the organisation has developed from the temperance movement known as the United Kingdom Alliance. The alliance in turn was heavily influenced by the American temperance movement that fought successfully for Prohibition early in the 20^th century.

Further evidence came from the Alcohol Health Alliance chaired by Professor Sir Ian Gilmore. The alliance’s website says, “In recent decades overall alcohol consumption has increased dramatically [in the UK].” This claim flies in the face of statistics from HM Revenue & Customs, which collects all taxes and duties imposed on alcohol, which reports that sales of alcohol have fallen by close to 20% over the past 10 years.

Paul Chase said the CMO claimed her recommendations were “evidence based” but she took no unbiased scientific evidence. She added that any consumption of alcohol increased the risk of cancer, ignoring a wide body of scientific evidence to the contrary.

“Moderate consumption acts as a medicine,” Chase said. “You would need to consume 8.6 units a day for alcohol to start to have a negative effect. The risk of cancer comes from heavy drinking, not moderate drinking.

“The exception is breast cancer but the risk between non-drinkers and moderate drinkers is minimal.”

He criticised the fact that the CMO’s new 14 units a week were considered suitable for both sexes. “Women metabolise alcohol differently to men and so lower consumption is sensible.”

"I think that as a sector we cannot allow these guidelines to stand. They are the opposite of science. I would call for an independent review of the new drinking guidelines, I would call for all of the international evidence and not just the selective evidence the panel has used to put the guidelines together."

His views were backed by Nick Boley, a member of the Campaign for Real Ale’s national executive, in a letter to the Guardian on 16 May. “It would be helpful,” he said, “if the UK’s chief medical officers could explain what evidence they have that is not available to their equivalents in other EU countries.

“For example, the equivalent figure in Spain, not a country traditionally noted for a culture of problem drinking, is 34 units. The new UK guidelines seem to ignore previous well-regarded studies which showed the beneficial health effects of moderate consumption of alcoholic drinks compared with total abstinence.

“These studies also showed that the level of risk did not exceed that from total abstinence until a level somewhere higher than 14 units was reached. It is very easy to detect the joyless hand of the anti-alcohol lobby behind these guidelines. Indeed, one could surmise that they will only be content when every brewer, cider-maker, wine-maker, distiller and publican has been driven out of business, and a significant plank of our culture has been destroyed.

“The irony of all this is not lost on those of us who have campaigned and lobbied our government to adopt policies to support and protect the great British community pub, recognising the value of these wonderful institutions in providing an environment for moderate consumption of alcoholic drinks, whilst interacting with our friends, neighbours and peers. The recent report from the Campaign for Real Ale, carried out by Professor Robin Dunbar of Oxford University, demonstrated this clearly.

“We need to be wary of those who seem hell-bent on pushing this country towards prohibition, destroying centuries of our culture.”

Recommended units of alcohol per week

Spain:  34

United States & Canada: 25

Ireland & Denmark: 21

United Kingdom: 14